Posted by
REILLY-ACE-OF-SPIES on Friday, December 28, 2007 11:35:34 PM
On June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife were assassinated in Sarajevo Bosnia. What followed was the series of crowned headed missteps which led to World War One. After much posturing by the German Kaiser, the Russian Tsar, the French President and promises to keep their everlasting love and mutual respect they individually started to “mobilize” meaning then to raise armies in the field and steam in the navy; ergo they sleep walked into war. In actuality Europe was a tinderbox of corruption and contempt and the intermingled marriages between the royal houses did nothing to stop the ethnic and nationalistic hatred and violence.
The assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has similar characteristics particularly the two main nation –states at risk are neighbors directly aligned whose state of peace is more a matter of paper and protocol then actual practice, so it is safe to say that India has either closed it border with Pakistan or at the very least moved its armed forces closer to the aligning border. Rendering an August 1914 scenario to the current condition in subcontinent Asia is mere speculation but little can be gained by rejecting the truth that ethnic strife within both India and Pakistan will need to be brought under control and into analysis. This assassination can be construed as an Al Quida TwoFer. By this act Pakistan falls into domestic civil war while at the same time a cross border war with their archrival India opens. Much hand wringing will take place as the UN tries to do its takeoff on the Vatican and the Vatican tries to be like the UN, but in the world of RealPolitik impotence is impotence and “Power is power the one element of the human condition you cannot fake” (Stalin).
What part in this bouillabaisse can the United States take part is a tough question ventured as to just what makes up the true or vital interests of the United States relative to Pakistan and/or India. Status Quo Ante the assassination is a condition that does not exist and to pretend that it does is folly with a long history of such foolishness leading into protracted conflict and war. That said, the United Stares cannot straddle Pakistan and India in a Pakistan versus India world of affairs. If the weights be to Pakistan then our alliance will need be with the Musharraf Government of Pakistan more than the Populi Pakistani itself because our vital interests exists with our Armed Forces we have situated in Afghanistan beyond and over the Pakistani mountain range and geographically a most vulnerable place on the planet.